Tag Archives: projections

Dead on Arrival: How to Underestimate EV Demand

As the auto industry enters version 2.0, forecasting future sales of EVs is a crucial piece of work. But most projections, especially from the oil industry, use the wrong curve, and so underestimate demand. The Missing S Curve Here’s a funny thing. Most analysis of technological innovation refers to … Continue reading

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For the UK, 2016 Was Likely the Year of Peak Demand for Internal Combustion Cars

The Car Market In the UK Has Now Fundamentally Changed 2016 probably marked the peak of sales growth for conventionally-fuelled, non-electric internal-combustion vehicles in the UK – meaning they are now likely in long-term sales decline. A short-hand way of describing this … Continue reading

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Peak Demand, Relentless Supply – Paper 2

A summary of Paper  2 is shown here – the full analysis is in the White Paper section. Three Key Questions Paper 1 discussed two fundamentally different world-views of the energy transition. The industry consensus is that it will be gradual, … Continue reading

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Plan B – The Unwalled Garden

(Note – this post is also available in pdf format in the White Paper page) Leading Oil Firms Should Start Executing Plans for a World of Less Demand, and External Rivalry In last month’s post – No Plan B – I reviewed the current strategies … Continue reading

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