Tag Archives: electric vehicles

Short the (Expensive) Horses: The numbers behind fossil fuel’s decline

For all the strengths of the incumbent thermal fossil fuel system, mainly its energy density and transportability, it is not an inherently scalable technology – and it is vulnerable to one that is. “I’ve given talks in the past where … Continue reading

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Dead on Arrival: How to Underestimate EV Demand

As the auto industry enters version 2.0, forecasting future sales of EVs is a crucial piece of work. But most projections, especially from the oil industry, use the wrong curve, and so underestimate demand. The Missing S Curve Here’s a funny thing. Most analysis of technological innovation refers to … Continue reading

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The First Law of Thermodynamics – Energy Is Becoming a Buyer’s Market

Energy cannot be created or destroyed, but can be altered from one state to another (1). Oil Supply Dwarfs Demand – Official “There is an abundance of oil: known resources today dwarf the world’s likely consumption of oil out to 2050 and … Continue reading

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For the UK, 2016 Was Likely the Year of Peak Demand for Internal Combustion Cars

The Car Market In the UK Has Now Fundamentally Changed 2016 probably marked the peak of sales growth for conventionally-fuelled, non-electric internal-combustion vehicles in the UK – meaning they are now likely in long-term sales decline. A short-hand way of describing this … Continue reading

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The End of the ICE Age: The Internal Combustion Engine Could Soon Become A Stranded Asset

A number of forces, technical and economic, are conspiring to unseat the internal combustion engine (ICE) as the prime mover for transportation. The future powering of China and India looks more electric, efficient and urban, stranding ICE vehicles and oil … Continue reading

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