Category Archives: Oil and Gas

Short the (Expensive) Horses: The numbers behind fossil fuel’s decline

For all the strengths of the incumbent thermal fossil fuel system, mainly its energy density and transportability, it is not an inherently scalable technology – and it is vulnerable to one that is. “I’ve given talks in the past where … Continue reading

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China’s Electric Conversion – The Energy Transition is Accelerating

China is taking a leadership role in solar and wind deployment for electricity generation: this will accelerate the global energy transition from the thermal system. By 2020 solar and wind could supply over 50% of China’s marginal electricity demand, and non-fossil fuels all … Continue reading

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US Gasoline Demand – A Prime Driver Reverses

US Gasoline Demand has slumped so far in 2017 – that could start to matter a lot, as it drives global oil demand Oil demand growth remains heavily dependent on transportation fuel growth. About 60% of the oil barrel is made … Continue reading

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Dead on Arrival: How to Underestimate EV Demand

As the auto industry enters version 2.0, forecasting future sales of EVs is a crucial piece of work. But most projections, especially from the oil industry, use the wrong curve, and so underestimate demand. The Missing S Curve Here’s a funny thing. Most analysis of technological innovation refers to … Continue reading

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The First Law of Thermodynamics – Energy Is Becoming a Buyer’s Market

Energy cannot be created or destroyed, but can be altered from one state to another (1). Oil Supply Dwarfs Demand – Official “There is an abundance of oil: known resources today dwarf the world’s likely consumption of oil out to 2050 and … Continue reading

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